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Jackson Jules's avatar

I don't think I trust the polls about ideal fertility vs. realized fertility to be communicating something meaningful.

In general, I'm leery of polls that ask people how they would behave in hypothetical situations. It just seems rife for social desirability bias.

The most charitible way to interpret these polls is "If I had more options, than I would choose to have more children." But it's precisely the women with the *most* options who are having the *fewest* children!

These are the types of situations where I trust people's revealed preferences more than what they say. The reality is that if you really want to have three kids as a woman, it's pretty straightfoward. You have to (a) marry at a reasonable age (mid-to-late twenties at the latest) and then (b) have three kids with your husband. That's it! If you don't make getting married early a priority, then the natural conclusion to draw is that you don't really value kids all that much.

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Symmetrial's avatar

So we don’t have a cultural problem. Desires are where they should be. The spirit is willing but the flesh is weak.

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